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 Post subject: Honduras Coup: Possibilites
PostPosted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 9:54 am 
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Joined: Sat May 09, 2009 3:36 pm
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http://topics.cnn.com/topics/honduras

Ok, so there has been a coup in Honduras.

This could be a great setting for current (war on terror age), 1980s (cold war) or 1990s (post cold war) scenarios or campaigns.

Quote:
The Facts:
1. The military deposed Zelaya early Sunday and flew him to Costa Rica. Roberto Micheletti, president of the Congress, was sworn in as provisional president. Zelaya had been at odds with the other branches of government over a referendum he wanted to hold Sunday. The nation's Supreme Court ruled the referendum was illegal and Congress voted not to hold it.

The Supreme Court also overturned Zelaya's dismissal of Honduras' top general, who said the military would not participate in the referendum. The court ordered he general be reinstated immediately.
Zelaya disregarded those actions and vowed to hold the vote Sunday anyway.

2. Though deposed, Zelaya continued to carry out his presidential duties, attending a special meeting of the leftist group ALBA, the Spanish acronym for Bolivarian Alternative for the Peoples of Our Americas, in Nicaragua.
ALBA, founded by Cuba and Venezuela in 2004 to counter U.S. influence in Latin America, said member nations would withdraw ambassadors and top diplomats from Honduras until Zelaya is restored to power.

New Developments:
1. "Zelaya remains the president of Honduras," says President Obama
2. Journalists briefly detained, mistreated by Honduran soldiers
3. government declares indefinite curfew, shuts down media sources
4. Politicians call for new government to be isolated diplomatically, politically


Here are my ideas on creating a campaign for wargaming based on the current events:


If set currently, could the USA intervene in a limted manner? Would Cuba and Venezuala get involved? What if Haliburton and Blackwater (XE or whatever its new name is) gets the contract to restore Zelaya to power?

1. US sides with Zelaya. A limited US Marine MEU invasion VS. the new government. Cuba and VZ stay out of it. There is a nice little war before the Honduran gov topples and the US is stuck in another ongoing "not war".

2. US Sides with new government. Zelaya and Cuba/VZ begin to try a comeback. Haliburton and Mercs get contract with Gov to fight ZeCuVZ guerillas.

3. VZ hires Haliburton to help put Zelaya back in power. US gov stays out of it.
New Honduran gov hires other mercs/central american countries to try and defeat Zelaya-Haliburton/merc counter revolution.


Set in 1990s

1. Fidel sides with Zelaya (or other leader) and plans invasion. VZ is not led by Hugo Chavez so it its just as likely that central american countries will side with new honduran gov as not. Merc firms like EO or sandline may become involved. Vicktor Bout may begin flying arms in.

2. President Clinton becomes involved in the coup and mucks things up. Which ever side he chooses to support becomes the "evil" side and the other side gains support of people and other central american nations. a MEU is sent along with typical cruise missiles.

If set in 1980s:

The Coup is either Nationalist or Communist.

If communist, then USSR, Cuba and Nicaragua whole hardedly support the new regime and begin sending arms and aid. Reagan quickly gets approval for troops in central america. Volunteer Merc forces in Honduras CMA and other soldier of fortune types like those from Frank Camper's Merc School and others are caught up in it. There are several contra bases in Honduras which would be immediately set upon from both sides. The contras and Mercs would have to fight and or flee.

If the Coup is Ultra-Nationalist, then there is a chance that nicaraguans would invade. this could lead to a shooting war between the USA and communists in central america but it is not likely. Congress would not like an extreme (brutal) right wing gov in honduras, but there would be many more advisors from Cuba and USSR involved. The USA would probably send more troops to help train other regional forces, but no actual combat troops. The CIA and the NSC (Oliver North and Co) would become more involved as would non Government Mercs.

What are your ideas?


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